{"id":1956,"date":"2026-07-01T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-30T22:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/olters.eu\/?p=1956"},"modified":"2026-07-16T13:04:34","modified_gmt":"2026-07-16T11:04:34","slug":"opwp-%e2%84%96-2026-01","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olters.eu\/fr\/opwp-%e2%84%96-2026-01\/","title":{"rendered":"OPWP \u2116 2026\/01"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Avant un second \u00e9chec ? Les \u00e9lections r\u00e9gionales, le pare-feu et le risque von Papen<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

PP-PO-DE.<\/strong> Les forces d\u00e9mocratiques du centre sont-elles, une fois de plus, en train d\u2019ouvrir la voie de l\u2019exercice du pouvoir \u00e0 l\u2019extr\u00eame droite ? Dans une tribune publi\u00e9e par Der Spiegel<\/em>, Ann-Katrin M\u00fcller<\/a> r\u00e9sumait la situation en ces termes (traduit de l\u2019allemand) : \u00ab La politique men\u00e9e r\u00e9cemment par la CDU\/CSU a contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 normaliser l\u2019AfD. M\u00eame involontairement, elle a envoy\u00e9 \u00e0 son \u00e9lectorat un signal d\u00e9sastreux : celui selon lequel l\u2019AfD pourrait avoir raison \u2014 pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment sur la question migratoire, qui constitue son principal th\u00e8me politique. \u00bb<\/em> Cette analyse faisait suite \u00e0 un vote intervenu \u00e0 la mi-juin au Parlement europ\u00e9en, au cours duquel le Parti populaire europ\u00e9en (PPE), auquel appartient \u00e9galement la CDU\/CSU, s\u2019est associ\u00e9 aux trois groupes d\u2019extr\u00eame droite pour adopter un net durcissement des r\u00e8gles en mati\u00e8re d\u2019asile et d\u2019\u00e9loignement, y compris la cr\u00e9ation de \u00ab return hubs<\/em> \u00bb (centres de retour) destin\u00e9s aux demandeurs d\u2019asile d\u00e9bout\u00e9s dans des pays tiers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La v\u00e9ritable rupture du tabou ne r\u00e9sidait toutefois pas tant dans l\u2019apparition d\u2019une majorit\u00e9 alternative au-del\u00e0 du pare-feu, qui semble d\u00e9sormais se consolider sur les questions d\u2019asile, de migration et de politique climatique. Elle se manifestait surtout dans les slogans scand\u00e9s \u2014 \u00ab Send them back! Send them back! \u00bb<\/em> \u2014, une mise en sc\u00e8ne rappelant les rassemblements du mouvement MAGA et qui, dans l\u2019interpr\u00e9tation la plus optimiste, pourrait \u00eatre comprise comme un avertissement de ce qui nous attend. Une lecture plus convaincante y voit le pr\u00e9lude \u00e0 une offensive de \u00ab remigration \u00bb soigneusement pr\u00e9par\u00e9e, inspir\u00e9e de la seconde administration Trump. Celle-ci est d\u00e9j\u00e0 explicitement formul\u00e9e dans le \u00ab programme gouvernemental<\/a> \u00bb de l\u2019AfD en Saxe-Anhalt, formation r\u00e9solument d\u2019extr\u00eame droite, afin de pouvoir \u00eatre ult\u00e9rieurement pr\u00e9sent\u00e9e, apr\u00e8s les \u00e9lections r\u00e9gionales, comme l\u2019expression d\u2019un mandat d\u00e9mocratique.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Il ne s\u2019agit l\u00e0 que d\u2019un exemple parmi beaucoup d\u2019autres de la normalisation progressive des r\u00e9cits de l\u2019extr\u00eame droite \u2014 une \u00e9volution qui \u00e9claire d\u2019un jour nouveau, avant tout, le r\u00f4le de la d\u00e9mocratie chr\u00e9tienne. \u00c0 l\u2019approche des \u00e9lections r\u00e9gionales de septembre en Saxe-Anhalt et en Mecklembourg-Pom\u00e9ranie occidentale, la question centrale de cette \u00e9tude se pose \u00e0 nouveau : le centre d\u00e9mocratique renoncera-t-il, pour la deuxi\u00e8me fois \u2014 en parfaite connaissance des cons\u00e9quences et, une fois encore, par calcul tactique \u2014 \u00e0 emp\u00eacher l\u2019extr\u00eame droite d\u2019acc\u00e9der au pouvoir ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cette \u00e9volution ne trouve pas son origine \u00e0 Bruxelles. D\u00e8s f\u00e9vrier 2025, les d\u00e9bats sur la politique migratoire au Bundestag avaient d\u00e9j\u00e0 donn\u00e9 naissance \u00e0 une majorit\u00e9 alternative r\u00e9unissant la CDU\/CSU et l\u2019AfD \u2014 un premier \u00ab forage d\u2019essai \u00bb dans le pare-feu, prolong\u00e9 ensuite par les votes du Parlement europ\u00e9en soutenus par le PPE. En public, le chancelier f\u00e9d\u00e9ral Friedrich Merz continue de rappeler que son parti maintient son principe d\u2019incompatibilit\u00e9 avec l\u2019AfD et affirme que le pare-feu demeure intact. C\u2019est pourtant lui qui a formul\u00e9 cette maxime<\/a> selon laquelle \u00ab une d\u00e9cision juste ne devient pas erron\u00e9e du seul fait que les mauvaises personnes l\u2019approuvent \u00bb. C\u2019est pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment dans cette tension \u2014 entre la r\u00e9affirmation de l\u2019exclusion politique et l\u2019acceptation de majorit\u00e9s parlementaires au-del\u00e0 du pare-feu \u2014 que r\u00e9side aujourd\u2019hui le dilemme de la d\u00e9mocratie chr\u00e9tienne. Les voix qui, au sein m\u00eame de son parti, souhaitent remplacer ce qu\u2019elles qualifient d\u2019\u00ab hyst\u00e9rie du pare-feu \u00bb par de simples \u00ab lignes rouges \u00bb ne font qu\u2019accentuer cette contradiction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u2019est \u00e0 ces interrogations que r\u00e9pond cette \u00e9tude : le pare-feu est-il le simple signe d\u2019une puret\u00e9 id\u00e9ologique ou bien la le\u00e7on historique tir\u00e9e d\u2019une erreur de calcul politique dont les cons\u00e9quences se sont d\u00e9j\u00e0 r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9es d\u00e9sastreuses ? Peut-on r\u00e9ellement apprivoiser une force politique radicale en l\u2019int\u00e9grant au pouvoir, ou organise-t-on ainsi sa propre perte d\u2019influence ? Et en quoi la situation actuelle diff\u00e8re-t-elle des pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents historiques \u2014 et en quoi leur ressemble-t-elle ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Premi\u00e8re publication de la s\u00e9rie Olters Policy and Working Paper Series<\/em> (OPWP), Vor dem zweiten Scheitern? <\/em>(Avant un second \u00e9chec <\/em>?), associe l\u2019analyse des prochaines \u00e9lections r\u00e9gionales \u00e0 une r\u00e9flexion historique qui conduit des ann\u00e9es 1932-1933 jusqu\u2019\u00e0 nos jours, en passant par la Belgique, la France et la Su\u00e8de. Elle s\u2019interroge sur la capacit\u00e9 du centre d\u00e9mocratique \u00e0 tirer les bonnes le\u00e7ons de l\u2019histoire tant qu\u2019il est encore possible de le faire sans avoir \u00e0 en supporter des co\u00fbts politiques incalculables.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2192 T\u00e9l\u00e9charger l\u2019\u00e9tude compl\u00e8te (PDF):<\/strong> <\/mark><\/mark><\/a>https:\/\/olters.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/OPWP-01-2026.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Avant un second \u00e9chec ? Les \u00e9lections r\u00e9gionales, le pare-feu et le risque von Papen PP-PO-DE. Les forces d\u00e9mocratiques du centre sont-elles, une fois de plus, en train d\u2019ouvrir la voie de l\u2019exercice du pouvoir \u00e0 l\u2019extr\u00eame droite ? Dans une tribune publi\u00e9e par Der Spiegel, Ann-Katrin M\u00fcller r\u00e9sumait la situation en ces termes (traduit… Continue reading OPWP \u2116 2026\/01<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1956","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-publications-fr","entry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nOPWP \u2116 2026\/01 - OLTERS GmbH<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Avant les \u00e9lections r\u00e9gionales en Saxe-Anhalt et Mecklembourg : pourquoi le cordon sanitaire face \u00e0 l'AfD est une le\u00e7on tir\u00e9e d'une erreur de calcul historique.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/olters.eu\/fr\/opwp-\u2116-2026-01\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"OPWP \u2116 2026\/01 - 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